Two Daves Pick The SEC
September 26, 2009
Welcome to Two Daves Pick the SEC! Where has time gone? In the blink of
an eye, its the last weekend in September. If you haven't seen our blog,
there's an unbelievable story from the Atlanta Journal Constitution about
UGA fans trashing the campus and much worse. It makes Baton Rouge look
like the white house. Check it out at http://www.2daves.org
Doug says:
Well, the beat goes on, and I can't believe we're up to week four. This is make-or-break week for a lot of teams in the conference. There are so many unanswered questions that will become clearer after this week. Is Ole Miss for real? Can Georgia's defense show up? What about Mississippi State's defense? If Rice and Vanderbilt play in Houston will anyone show up to watch them?
Ole Miss at South Carolina
Dave says:
Ole Miss goes on the road for their first conference game of the year.
South Carolina lost to Georgia in their conference opener (when the UGA
campus was trashed). This promises to be a good game to watch. Ole Miss
has a solid offense, and South Carolina has a solid defense, featuring
monster LB Eric Norwood. Ole Miss' Jevan Snead will test the AKC
secondary early and often. I think this game will come down to Ole Miss'
ability to protect Snead, particularly from Norwood. If Snead has time,
he can get the ball to Dexter McCluster, an uber fast receiver. If
Norwood starts chasing Snead around, this will favor USC. Da Spur is
something like 5-2 on Thursday night games at USC, but I also believe both
losses came at home. In a close one......
Ole Miss 24 - USC 21
Doug says:
I'm perplexed. Picking the number four team in the country to win is generally a safe choice, but we know exactly nothing about Ole Miss right now. They've played nobody, and they've been largely unimpressive, despite two wins by a combined total of 97-20. On the other hand, South Carolina is battle-tested, having played tough games against NC State and Georgia. Ole Miss is the better team, I think, but they'd better be on upset alert.
South Carolina at home: +10 USC
Mississippi's first real opponent: +8 USC
Snead vs. Garcia: +12 OM
Nutt vs. Spurrier: +7 USC
McCluster vs. SC Defense: +14 OM
Confederates 24 - Cocks 23
LSU at Mississippi State
Dave says:
LSU normally skulldrags Mississippi State, winning by an average of 29
points per game in their nine win streak. After being jacked for 600
yards by Auburn, State held Vanderbilt to under 200 yards of offense. I'm
not convinced that Carl Torbush's defense made that much improvement,
Vanderbilt looked terrible.
LSU fans probably feel better about their team since Washington knocked
off USC last weekend, a place LSU won at to start the season. So what to
expect this year? An LSU win, of course. I think Mullen keeps it
respectable though.
LSU 28 - Mithippi State 17
Doug says:
The coonasses have already begun their descent on Starkville. State fans are generally happy right now after the win at Vanderbilt, and rightfully so. But how good is the defense, really? I don't think they'll be Vandy-good against LSU, but I don't think they'll be Auburn-bad, either. Auburn-bad will return against Georgia Tech and Houston, I'm afraid. MSU will stay close for awhile, but they don't have the horses to hang with the Tigaahs for 60 minutes.
MSU at home: +10 MSU
10,000 traveling coonasses: +20 LSU
Muddy track: +5 MSU
Lester Miles: +5 MSU
MSU Defense: +14 LSU
Corndogs 31 - Burdawgs 17
Arkansas at Alabama
Dave says:
Arkansas put up some great numbers on offense against Georgia in a losing
effort last weekend. Neither Georgia nor Arkansas appear to play defense.
This game will come down to Arkansas defense against Alabama's offense.
I'm confident that Alabama will slow Petrino's offense down, so how well
Greg McElroy, Julio Jones, Mark Ingram and company perform decides this
one.
Tide 31 - Sausage 21
Doug says:
The Hogs are very stout on the offensive side of the ball, but we knew Petrino would have them that way at some point. Unfortunately for them, their defense still has scorch marks on them from the Georgia game last week. I do think this is a good match-up for Arkansas…to keep the score respectable. Bama has an outstanding defense, so it will be fun to see if Mallet can conquer Mount Cody.
Alabama at home: +20 Bama
Petrino offensive explosion: +40 Ark
Alabama defense: +12 Bama
Arkansas defense: +14 Bama
"Sweet Home Alabama" vs. "Dueling Banjos": +2 Bama
Gov. George Wallace 28 - Gov. Bill Clinton 20
Florida at Kentucky
Dave says:
Monte Kiffin showed the nation why he is one of the best paid assistants
in the nation when Tennessee slowed down the mighty Florida offense.
Kentucky had a thrilling come from behind win over Louisville last week.
Kentucky might catch Florida a little flat after last week's slugfest.
Tebow will slap everyone in the head and Florida will pull away in the
second half.
Florida 34 - UK 13
Doug says:
Rich Brooks has a scowl that is truly funny to watch. He's like the old man down the street who used to yell at you when you went into his yard to get your ball. He never looks happy; there are only degrees of pissed-offedness. I suspect every degree will be achieved as the Cats host a Florida team that is probably unhappy with their performance last week.
Kentucky at home: +10 UK
Apathetic crowd: Push
Angry Rich Brooks: +10 UK
Angry Urban Meyer: +14 UF
Angry Tim Tebow: +40 UF
Gators 48 - Gator Bait 14
Arizona State at Georgia
Dave says:
Last week its Howard Schnellenberger, this week its Dennis Erickson. The U
has-beens are everywhere. Erickson brings an undefeated Sun Devil team in
to face Georgia, who can score a lot of points, and give up a lot too.
Since Georgia crushed Arizona State last year in Tempe, I expect them to
do almost as well this weekend, if something resembling a defense shows
up.
We defecate on our campus 31 - Ewwwwww 21
Doug says:
The SEC gets an opportunity to further fatten their non-conference record here against a quality opponent. If the defense can keep the Sun Devils under 35, the dawgs should win. When your team is called the Sun Devils and you're playing a team whose head coach is on the God Squad, you can't like your chances.
Georgia between the hedges: +20 UGA
Cross-country opponent: +5 UGA
From the PAC-10: +5 UGA
Georgia matador defense: +10 ASU
Tasteless tailgaters bonus: +10 ASU
Saint Richt 38 - Heathens 28
Ball State at Auburn
Dave says:
BITCHSLAP OF THE WEAK! Auburn is going to beat Ball State so bad, David
Letterman's head will hurt for a week. This is Bobby Brown vs. Whitney
Houston. Oh the humanity!
Auburn 56 - Ball State 10
Doug says:
Auburn gets a well-deserved break this week after an impressive start to the season. Questioning whether they're for real can be saved for another week, when they're playing a competitive opponent. This one will be over early.
Auburn at home: +20 AU
With Malzahn's offense: +10 AU
And Onterrio McCalebb: +10 AU
And Chris Todd: +8 BSU
Chizik "Coach Of The Year" bonus: +9 AU
War Tigers 51 - Roadkill 10
Ohio at Tennessee
Dave says:
Tennessee established the run against Florida even though the Vols
provided no threat from the passing game. Volunteer fans will suffer much
like Mississippi State did under the Mike Henig / Sylvester Croom era - no
passing game, a decent running game and a good defense that wears down
because the offense can't stay on the field.
Tennessee 34 - Ohio 6
Doug says:
My Tennessee buddy tells me that he's happy with the outcome of the Florida-UT game, and thought it was a best-case scenario for the Vols. Me, I thought Kiffin played for the moral victory and was lucky enough to keep the score moderately close. I know Crompton sucks, but players like Eric Berry deserve better than that. They'll get the win this week, and Berry will do a little Bobcat hunting in the process.
Tennessee Home Field Advantage: +20 UT
Berry Advantage: +15 UT
Crompton Advantage: +20 Ohio
Hardesty Bonus: +5 UT
"Rocky Top" Annoyance Factor: +14 UT
Scared of Crompton 41 - Scared of Berry 7
Vanderbilt at Rice
Dave says:
Vanderbilt SUCKS! How can you lose a home game where you are a 9 point
favorite to a Mississippi State team that just gave up 600 yards in the
previous week? Mississippi State flat out dominated Vanderbilt, holding
the ball for almost 40 minutes. If it were not for the fact that Rice has
no weapons on offense, I'd pick Rice to win.
Vandy 27 - Rice 13
Doug says:
These are the kinds of games Vanderbilt used to lose frequently. I would love to say they've move past those days, but after their performance last week against MSU, it's clear to me that these are the same old Commodores. Lucky for them, Rice is terrible. Even Vandy should be able to score 30 on them. Okay, maybe I'm pushing it.
Superior conference bonus: +20 Vandy
SEC defense: +20 Vandy
No SEC offense: +12 Rice
Vanderbilt on the road: +10 Rice
Home field advantage: Push
SEC Private School 28 - C-USA Private School 10
