Ely's Restaurant Preseason Prognosticators - Auburn

[dawgstudent]

DATE	OPPONENT
8-30-14	ARKANSAS
9-6-14	SAN JOSE STATE
9-18-14	at Kansas State (Thur.)
9-27-14	LOUISIANA TECH
10-4-14	LOUISIANA STATE
10-11-14	at Mississippi State
10-25-14	SOUTH CAROLINA
11-1-14	at Ole Miss
11-8-14	TEXAS A&M
11-15-14	at Georgia
11-22-14	SAMFORD
11-29-14	at Alabama

_________________________________________________




Richard Shapley
richard@elysrestaurant.com
Phone: 601.605.6359
Fax: 601.605.6687
http://elysrestaurant.com

[dawgstudent]

9-3 (5-3)

[patdog]

8-4 (4-4)

[DawgatAuburn]

Which four? I see probably three losses max.

[patdog]

Could lose any of LSU, at MSU, at UM, at UGA, USC or at Bama. They didn't lose a lot of quantity, but they lost a lot of quality to graduation. Plus, they caught every possible break in 2013. That won't happen again this year.

[columbiadawg2]

L's to LSU, UGA & Bama

[Shmuley]

Hope those piece of shit MFers die in a fire. [/tea party mode].

[NewTweederEndzoneDance]

9-3 (5-3) **

[LonesomeDog]

8-4 (4-4)

[willi13]

9-3 (5-3)

[Confucius Say]

Which four? I see probably three losses max.

Split state and bears.
Split Georgia and USCe.
Lose one bt LSU, A&M, and at K state.
Lose to Bama on road.

Their over-under win total came out at 9.5. No way they win ten. Easiest bet of year. They won eleven last year with a MUCH easier schedule, and that was with two self proclaimed miracles at home (UGA and Bama) and a win over us on the next to last play of the game, at home.

[DawgatAuburn]

Split state and bears.

I see this a lot, and I hope it happens this year with us getting the W. If history counts at all in the transient world of college football, it tells us it is unlikely.

Since 1990, Auburn is 16-8 against us, and half of our wins came consecutively from 1997-2000 and two more in 91 and 92. They are 19-5 against da Bears, with no two wins any closer together than four years (at least three losses in between wins), and Ole Miss holds a 2012 win right now. Three times in that time period, WE (the MS schools) swept Auburn: 2012, when Auburn was 3 and 9 in Chizik's last year; 1999, when Auburn was 5-6 in Tuberville's first season; and 1992 when Auburn was 5-5-1. In those three years (six seasons), WE were 49-25. So there's big news, sweeps occur when WE are collectively good and Auburn is below average. So while WE may be good this year, I don't see Auburn being below average this year, nor does anyone.

Splits have happened seven times.
2008 - when 9-4 Ole Miss beat 5-7 Auburn. We were one point away from a sweep.....3-2.
2007 - when 8-5 MSU beat 9-4 Auburn. Good win in J-H, aided in part by a Pegues pick six early.
2003 - when 10-3 Ole Miss beat 8-5 Auburn
2000 - when 8-4 MSU beat 9-4 Auburn
1998 - when 8-5 MSU beat 3-8 Auburn in Bowden's last hurrah.
1997 - when 7-4 MSU beat 10-3 Auburn 20-0 with Anthony Derricks taking a pick six back about 95 yards. Sweet.
1991 - when 5-6 Ole Miss beat 5-6 Auburn

Three of the seven splits happened when Auburn was below .500. I doubt Auburn is below .500 this year. So four times in 24 years Auburn has split with us and Ole Miss when they were above .500. Those aren't good odds for a split.

Here's the good news. In the last 24 years, we've been over .500 12 times. I'm using that metric because I think most of us agree we're going to be .500 or better this year. In those 12 years of .500+ football, we are 8-4 against Auburn. More shocking news....when we're pretty good or better, we have a better shot at beating Auburn, but we've also lost to them with 8 and 9 win teams. The Bears have been over .500 14 times in that period, but only have a 5-9 record against Auburn in those years.

Interestingly, location has no impact. Our eight wins have been split 4-4 home and road, and Ole Miss has three home wins and two road wins.

Seems like we say it every year, but a lot of the success of our season depends on the Auburn game. While they are still a top program, they're for whatever reason, easier for us to beat than Alabama and LSU.

I needed to mindlessly look at stats for a while. Thank you.