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  1. #1

    Analysis: We will drop to 18th - 20th in the CFP Rankings

    Barring a Boston College miracle, four teams behind us are losers.

    Texas and Penn State will definitely jump us. Iowa State and/or Fresno State may jump us. NC State may drop below us as well. The computers do not like the Wolfpack and they love us. Kentucky will drop big, but will be right above us.

    I expect Utah will jump into the CFP Top 25 to replace Auburn. Possibly Northwestern or Utah State if Iowa drops out. Michigan State could drop out - I suspect Boston College will remain.

    The only reason this would matter in the long run is could we get to the Top 12 with two wins to close the season. Its doubtful, so the best shot for us is the Citrus Bowl.

    Right now, Alabama, Georgia and LSU are in the NY6. Florida probably is if they can beat Idaho and Florida State. That gives the Citrus Bowl the choice between State and Kentucky. Kentucky's loss to Tennessee was BIG for us today. They finish with Middle Tenn and Louisville, likely wins. If we win out, the Citrus will have the choice between a 9-3 Kentucky and an 8-4 MSU. Best shot would be another UK loss, or we will end up a Top 15 team in the Liberty Bowl.


    Bowl Prep | Bowl Game Yes | No

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by 615dawg View Post
    Barring a Boston College miracle, four teams behind us are losers.

    Texas and Penn State will definitely jump us. Iowa State and/or Fresno State may jump us. NC State may drop below us as well. The computers do not like the Wolfpack and they love us. Kentucky will drop big, but will be right above us.

    I expect Utah will jump into the CFP Top 25 to replace Auburn. Possibly Northwestern or Utah State if Iowa drops out. Michigan State could drop out - I suspect Boston College will remain.

    The only reason this would matter in the long run is could we get to the Top 12 with two wins to close the season. Its doubtful, so the best shot for us is the Citrus Bowl.

    Right now, Alabama, Georgia and LSU are in the NY6. Florida probably is if they can beat Idaho and Florida State. That gives the Citrus Bowl the choice between State and Kentucky. Kentucky's loss to Tennessee was BIG for us today. They finish with Middle Tenn and Louisville, likely wins. If we win out, the Citrus will have the choice between a 9-3 Kentucky and an 8-4 MSU. Best shot would be another UK loss, or we will end up a Top 15 team in the Liberty Bowl.
    We actually should move up. We won't of course. Hopefully we are still ranked.


    Bowl Prep | Bowl Game Yes | No

  3. #3
    Another team that could be a turd in the punch bowl is Missouri. Don’t look now but they are 6-4 with their last 2 games against Tennessee and Arkansas....they should be favored in both. They also have a big time quality win over Florida on their resume, which is something we lack on ours as we have zero wins over teams likely to be in the CFP release next week, now that Auburn is out. You can’t really make an argument that a 6-4 MSU should be in the ranking without also conceding that a 6-4 Missouri team with a quality win on the road over a Top 15 team and no bad losses shouldn’t also be in. Could get interesting if they win out, they would definitely be in the same tier as State and UK come selection time.


    Bowl Prep | Bowl Game Yes | No

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Go Budaw View Post
    Another team that could be a turd in the punch bowl is Missouri. Don’t look now but they are 6-4 with their last 2 games against Tennessee and Arkansas....they should be favored in both. They also have a big time quality win over Florida on their resume, which is something we lack on ours as we have zero wins over teams likely to be in the CFP release next week, now that Auburn is out. You can’t really make an argument that a 6-4 MSU should be in the ranking without also conceding that a 6-4 Missouri team with a quality win on the road over a Top 15 team and no bad losses shouldn’t also be in. Could get interesting if they win out, they would definitely be in the same tier as State and UK come selection time.
    That inexplicable loss to UK is going to end up being costly come bowl selection time. Couple that with their meltdown at South Carolina and the “what if” game becomes maddening.

    I am impressed with their resilience though. Either one of those two losses could have led to a lost season, but they were able to bounce back.


    Bowl Prep | Bowl Game Yes | No

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