Reply With QuoteI agree. Although, I was surprised to see bank reporting come in a bit soft. Goldman dropped 7% this week. Disney is down a chunk too. Disney’s pricing power is incredible.
Enough is enough. Every sector is severely oversold. I wouldn't buy stocks valued on an extremely high price to sales basis unless there's a viable pathway to profitability on the horizon. While these stocks will rally if the market does, those stocks will be sold hard into those rallies.
You want to buy stocks with solid fundamentals, cash flow and most importantly PRICING POWER and pair that with some quality growth stocks, but growth at a reasonable price.
I'm not trying to call the bottom, but we have to be somewhat close. Don't go all in, but I would do some buying today and on the next rally, sell your low quality stuff that may have substantial more downside.
There's no systemic risk to the market right now. I don't see a recession on the horizon either. The market is going through a valuation reset that's long over due. The sky isn't falling.
Good luck!
MSU Class of 2011
I agree. Although, I was surprised to see bank reporting come in a bit soft. Goldman dropped 7% this week. Disney is down a chunk too. Disney’s pricing power is incredible.
Goldman was misunderstood. Investors were alarmed at 28% expense growth and largely from salaries. The problem with that is the salaries were actually bc of variable bonus payments that is entirely linked to the amount of deals their investment bankers bring to the firm, so it's really a fee cut to the deal makers. That drops if they don't make as many deals. Goldman still has an incredibly low PE.
DIS down bc of NFLX, which may be an overreaction but I've also never understood NFLX's valuation, so I'm not the guy to comment on NFLX.
MSU Class of 2011
S&P 500 official correction is at 4335. Never the worst time to buy. Cause while it might not be the bottom, it sure ain't the top.
I don't know. At some point, the FED is going to have to act on inflation and it's going to be hard to do that without causing a recession because some of the inflation is caused by idiotic government policy (both federal, state, and local) and the only tools they have will make those problems worse. We'd be in a tight spot even if we had a competent secretary of transportation and president. Not sure what's going ot happen with neither.Originally Posted by TheStateUofMS
ETA: Not htat I would hesitate to put money into stocks right now, just saying I think we're probably going to have a real recession also.
So what stocks are YOU buying?
Expert economists have predicted 25 of the last 3 recessions, good for a 19.83% success rate.*
Well, they've had a 100% success rate eventually, at least for those predictions made prior to February 2020.
Seasonality says we get another rally into mid feb. Then ugly again for awhile into April. That lines up w strong big tech earnings next week, and then a selloff ahead of big Fed February announcement. After that, watching GDP close for a possible recession.
I bought Ford, it's down a little now with room for a lot of growth. I like what there are doing with hybrids and EVs.
Apple seems to be bulletproof, but it is high now.
You may have that backwards. AAPL and F are both currently trading for a PE multiple of slightly over 29. I'll bet you a cold beer that AAPL destroys F on earnings growth and stock performance over the next 3-5 years.
For comparison, GM and Toyota have PE ratios below 10 currently. In no world can you convince me F should get the same multiple as AAPL.
No doubt, I've owned Apple for a long time and it has done me well! Based Ford on their upside, the seem to have their --- together with the Maverick and Lightning, I personally don't believe in EVs, but there are gonna grow. I hopped on Telsa at just the right time, but dang it is so overvalued.
Last edited by greenbean; 01-21-2022 at 06:10 PM.
I'm looking hard at LAD. Lithia Auto Dealers. Low PE and price has been consolidating for a while. Current consensus price target represents 55% upside.
Oil has been down this week, some build in inventories. I've been heavy there, wondering what happens in Ukraine and how that affects oil.
I disagree regarding Goldman wage pressure vs recent market drop. Merrill Lynch’s fundamentals were at an all time high, quarter over quarter, while having a similar structure. In fact, Bank of America had one of the largest corporate wage increase, while blowing out analysts profit expectations. We are experiencing sector vacuums, including financials, which should become a leader, upon the Fed’s guidance. IPO’s are being delayed as investors sentiment is declining, which can also be a contrarian indication.
For those of us in the industry, don’t try to catch a falling knife, should be emblazoned in the back of our minds. Risk should be planned and executed.
I’m a believer in downside protection of the market, while investing in non correlated holdings.
Thought this would be a good place to drop some definitions and the scoreboard.
-0.01% to -4.99% = dip
-5.00% to -9.99% = pullback
-10.00% to -19.99% = correction
-20.00% to -99.99% = bear market
The S&P 500 is down 8.73% from it's all time high in the first week in January. It's just a pullback at this point.
The Russell 2000 Small cap index is down 19.15% since it's all time high the first week of November. Tis a cunt hair from bear market status.
The Nasdaq is down 15.07% from it's all time high set Thanksgiving week.
GameStop is down 78% from it's squeeze mania 1 year ago.
Bitcoin is down 48% from it's all time high the first week of November.
Dogecoin is down 82% from it's all time high back in April.
Nikola is down 93% from it's high in June of 2020.
And my personal favorite. Microstrategy. The pricks that pricked the dotcom bubble. Still down 89% from their high in March of 2000.
So, nobody should get to down on their portfolio, unless you bought the tops of Nikola, Microstrategy, GameStop, or Dogecoin. Prolly time to cut bait on those turds.
Misread. Thought you said buy steaks. Now I have a side of beef in a freezer (that’s on its last leg)on the back porch, and my aunt won’t call the man.
AMD, FCX, BAC, FFIV
MSU Class of 2011
My cost basis for Doge is $0.20, it's down to $0.13 now, should I sell? Any hope for a recovery?
I mean, I guess you can hold on to it hoping Elon Musk tweets about it again. Or the Reddit virgins hop on board again. Generally speaking, holding these meme coins is like hitting on 20 at the blackjack table... Not the best move, but you could end up with an ace a little less than 10% of the time.
I would go down with the ship on doge, or ride it to the top. All or nothing….because that’s how you have to look at those type of plays before you put money in it.
I don’t think we’re close to the bottom yet.
The feds will have to raise interest rates to deal with inflation. I see a recession coming on in the fourth quarter or early 23.
Did anyone buy? Looks like I was 1 day early, so Monday 1/24 was the low at this point.
MSU Class of 2011
Depends on inflation. Americans may cut back enough that slows things down for the Fed, but don't see that happening until after Summer vacations.
I see Fed going with 50bps hike in March. Hope they let balance sheet roll off on its own as securities mature. Dumping them on the market sounds like worst case scenario. We'd for sure go into recession as liquidity dries up and interest rates spike.
I bet they are around 1.5% on the Fed Funds rate by year end.
MSU Class of 2011
Interesting facts about our current 'inflation':
70% of it is accounted for by just fuel, meat, and cars, none of which can really be attributed to monetary phenomena, but instead are almost certainly due to supply issues. Take that 70% out of 7% inflation and you come to....2%. Literally everything else besides those 3 things is running along at the same 2 points of inflation we've had for decades, even with unprecedented wage gains that likely are over.
What does the Fed do if a rate increase turns out to be an overreaction. Don't know, rates have to go up sometime and might as well be now, hard to see them backing off even if the data says to. A cooled economy, maybe a minor recession, seems likely.
So you’re telling me that me investing my family’s future on Dogecoin, after Elon sent out a tweet while he was high, was a BAD decision?? Agree to disagree, sir.
Non-Servant Heart Haver
It's all accounted for by monetary phenomena bro. I told you this would happen in July/August of 2020. People have more money and there is less productivity. I am willing and able to pay more for my steak (or any other item) because I have extra money. There is less steak because there are less steak bros making steaks. So steaks cost more to balance supply and demand.
If there was no helicopter money, I couldn't afford the demand side of the price increases. The supply would have found equilibrium at much lower prices and steak bros would eventually have to get back to the steak bro factory as the economy would not have shot through the roof creating 2.4 million excess retirements allowing steak bros to take a job as corporate execs at pork bros inc.
If nothing else was learned economically over the last two years, we can now confirm MMT bros were completely wrong.
Last edited by JoeLee'sSocks; 01-28-2022 at 05:10 PM.
You must be crazy!
If you lived thru, and were responsible dealing with life (not a kid)) in the early 70"s
You might get the picture.
Jack may be gone, but he is "EVER PRESENT"
You did not predict that steaks, and just steaks, would inflate, bro. So why isn't everything increasing in price, if it's related to the value of money. Again, it's just those three things.
What's your projection now? Continued 7% inflation, or it stops and goes back to 2%? I predict the latter. Data points that way.
ETA: people have been telling me this would happen for over 20 years, on the exact same reasoning. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
Last edited by BoomBoom; 01-28-2022 at 05:23 PM.
Hahaha. Quit looking at that shit info from CPI and look around. Furniture is up 8% in 2021. Gas 49%. Autos. Housing is up 20% YoY. 17ing everything. Everything in the grocery store. Services are rising, don't believe call a plumber or HVAC guy.
Now will it continue, probably not. Unless we keep doing inflationary shit like increasing food stamp stipends, give everyone trillions in stimulus, drop interest rates to zero, give mortgage forbearance, rent moratoriums, and cancel student loan debt.
Inflation will cool later this year. The Fed will probably overshoot and yeah, 2% will be back in 2023-2024 unless the other things continue.
But that doesn't change the fact we had a 40+ year record inflation. The damage is done. Don't believe me, find the guy sitting on cash waiting for the pandemic to end and ask him to go buy a house. Prices aren't coming down. We have new floors on nearly everything.
Take your 17ing L and move on.
Record inflation? By what measure, CPI, the one you say is shit info the second it doesn't support you?
YoY? Gee, what was going on a year ago?
Dude, we've done all that "inflationary shit" many times, it never caused inflation. Catch. A. Clue. Now what was different this time? We gave money to everyday people, and supply chains dried up. I didn't foresee that, and would have expected normal supply and demand curves to apply if I had. Gotta take the L for not foreseeing that those things would happen. But I ain't gonna massively misread the data like you are doing. For items that didn't experience a massive change in supply and demand, prices didn't change outside the norm. Straight facts dude, the only question is if you can accept them. And for the items with supply issues, as soon as the supply comes back to normal, so does the price. And you conclude this was due to money printing? By what logical process
Can't speak to furniture, but EVERY year something is up. Cherry picking.
You yourself have pointed out the shortage in housing supply.
No bro, not everything in the grocery is more expensive. Most stuff is is exact same.
40 year record inflation? For one year, sure. Over a few years? Hell no. Pretty sure the argument was not "don't spend money cause we'll have 7% real GDP growth but inflation will be high for one year only OMG!!!!". But hey, the perennial inflationistas have to take what they can get I guess
2% will be back by mid 2022. For everything but those 3 things, it never left.
$4.5 /gal gasoline will restart QE. The ESG quacks and likely oil major collusion are going to give these Demonuts their wish …. lower emissions because it’s going to crush the middle class. Not all bad though because the midterms will be a bloodbath ….. better get that communist on the Supreme Court ASAP.Record inflation? By what measure, CPI, the one you say is shit info the second it doesn't support you?
YoY? Gee, what was going on a year ago?
Dude, we've done all that "inflationary shit" many times, it never caused inflation. Catch. A. Clue. Now what was different this time? We gave money to everyday people, and supply chains dried up. I didn't foresee that, and would have expected normal supply and demand curves to apply if I had. Gotta take the L for not foreseeing that those things would happen. But I ain't gonna massively misread the data like you are doing. For items that didn't experience a massive change in supply and demand, prices didn't change outside the norm. Straight facts dude, the only question is if you can accept them. And for the items with supply issues, as soon as the supply comes back to normal, so does the price. And you conclude this was due to money printing? By what logical process
Can't speak to furniture, but EVERY year something is up. Cherry picking.
You yourself have pointed out the shortage in housing supply.
No bro, not everything in the grocery is more expensive. Most stuff is is exact same.
40 year record inflation? For one year, sure. Over a few years? Hell no. Pretty sure the argument was not "don't spend money cause we'll have 7% real GDP growth but inflation will be high for one year only OMG!!!!". But hey, the perennial inflationistas have to take what they can get I guess
2% will be back by mid 2022. For everything but those 3 things, it never left.
#buyoil
God you are a stubborn 17er.
Groceries across the board are through the roof. Go to the store. BLS and survey data are based on listed prices of an item, 70% of the groceries people buy are on sale. There are now fewer and shallower discounts.
My personal soda index. 1 year ago 12 packs of Coke products $5.99 regular price. Current prices are at $6.49 regular price. So based on list price it's 8% inflation. We always bought them on sale before, 3 for $12. Sale is now $5.49 each when you buy 3 or more. That's 37% on my actual wallet. I quit buying and went to 2 liters. Saw a damn family size box of Velveeta shells and cheese for $7.49 last week.
Rent up 22% nationally yoy
Childcare up 41% since the pandemic began according to Fortune.
Willis Towers Watson pegged health insurance premiums increase for 2022 at 5.2%.
Electricity up 10% yoy.
Gasoline closer to 50%
Internet 2%
Netflix 10%
Fast food/fast casual up 7.9%
Full service up 6%
I'm just tired of looking at this point, but for me the items listed above represents 80+ percent of my monthly fixed budget. It's all higher than giraffe pussy. Yes it will moderate, but the damage is done. If you continue putting unearned money in people's hands they will bid up the prices of goods.
Last edited by JoeLee'sSocks; 01-28-2022 at 10:36 PM.
Out of curiosity, I brought up my target app and compared my similar items from today vs exactly a year ago (minus a day)
12 pack Dr Pepper - Today 5.69 1 Yr 5.19
Gallon Milk - Today 2.79 1 Yr 2.79
Strawberries Today 3.29 1 Yr 3.99
Lays chips Today 1.39 1 Yr 1.39
24 Pack water Today 2.99 1 Yr 2.69
Lunchable Today 1.89 1 Yr 1.99
Banana Today 0.25 1 Yr 0.29
Red Baron Frozen Pizza Today 3.89 1 Yr 2.89
Pastaroni Today 0.99 1 Yr 0.99
Seems half have stayed the same, a couple dropped, and a couple increased a good bit
Free money can not equal earned money in value. All it does is decrease the value of earned money. Hence… inflation. Everyone suffers.
Last edited by M R DAWGS; 01-29-2022 at 09:21 PM.
Health insurance only thing likely to stick but that’s all a big scam anyway. All other items are deflationary.
What? Childcare, rent, food, electricity are deflationary? Maybe in the 19th century. Now they are staples that still require lots of human labor or finite resources.
Deflation will be the trend again, but that means recession without fed intervention. Between now and then we will have effectively raised the cost of living 12-15 percent in 2-3 years. That's not going to retrace without a recession. Do if you're a working stiff getting 3% annual pay raises, you are going to be poorer in 2023 than you were in 2020.
Here’s a big one. Gas when Trump was President—$1.85, Gas now— $3.09
That's about 4.5% without meat. Milk prices have been stable for decades because we over produce and use subsidies. Fruits and veggies have more to do with weather than most grocery items. The most shocking number in there is the lunchables. Just bought a couple for $2.50 each on sale. Won't buy them again. Everything else is pretty close.
I'm seeing 10% higher grocery bills. Easy.
If you want to see what consumer packaged goods inflation looks like (shit you buy at the grocery store) here is the industry heat map. 100 is flat. Below would mean lower you prices above is higher. Almost everything 8-13% higher.
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