Two Daves Pick The SEC

October 24, 2009

Welcome to Two Daves Pick The SEC! We are heading down the stretch, the most critical part of the season for most of the SEC. Florida and Alabama want to win the SEC and play in the BCS title game. Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Kentucky, South Carolina and even Mississippi State still hope to go bowling. There are some great matchups this weekend, and many of these games will have direct impacts on these aspirations.

Doug says:

Well, last week was interesting, to say the least. Florida needed some favorable officiating and some shaky special teams play to edge Arkansas. Georgia's Joe Cox played well in a day game. Ole Miss kicked the crap out of another C-USA team and impressed exactly nobody in the process. Auburn continued to turn into a pumpkin by laying a stinker against Kentucky, who was starting a true freshman QB. Vanderbilt sucks again. Oh, and Alabama is good.

Arkansas at Mississippi

Dave says:

Bobby Petrino was reprimanded by the Gestapo, excuse me, the SEC headquarters for publicly criticizing the officials from the Arkansas-Florida game. Way to go Petrino, it's about time someone had the guts to call out officials that make really bad calls that can cost a team the game. Mississippi State's Dan Mullen should have done the same when C-USA officials raped Mississippi State a couple of weeks ago. The Pigz have transcended into a pretty good football team. They skulldrug Texas A&M, they hammered then-undefeated Auburn, and they almost beat Florida in the Swamp. I'm also sure that there are some hard feelings on the Arkansas team with Houston Nutt bailing out for Ole Miss. Nutt had a solid first year, capped off with a bitchslap of Texas Tech.

The Rebels had high expectations for 2009. That went over like the Hindenburg. For whatever reason, QB Jevan Snead looks nothing like the 2008 QB that torched defenses across the SEC. If the 2009 Jevan Snead shows up this weekend, Ole Miss will lose. Conversely, if the 2008 Jevan Snead shows up, Ole Miss wins this game.

Arkansas 31

2008 28

Doug says:

This is probably the toughest game to pick this week. We can all safely assume that the Arkansas offense will show up. Everything else is a big question mark. Can the Hog defense stop Ole Miss? Or will Ole Miss stop themselves, like they've done so well to this point? My brain says to pick Ole Miss, but my gut says to pick Arkansas. I will let the calculator settle the tie.

Ole Miss at home: +10 UM

With Dexter McCluster in the Wildcat: +5 UM

And Jevan Snead throwing picks: +10 Ark

And Houston Nutt calling plays: +5 Ark

And the band no longer playing "From Dixie With Love": +3 Ark

Overalls 23

J Crew 20

Tennessee at Alabama

Dave says:

Where is Bubb Rubb when you need him? WOO WOOOOO! This game is going to be fun. In the offseason, Lane Kiffin took some swipes at Nick Saban. Would you poke the devil in the eye and expect to get away with it? People say that Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare for this rivalry game. I say so what? Alabama is much better coached, has much more talent, and they are playing at home. Monte Kiffin can only do so much. After being named the SEC Offensive player of the week, Crompton is due to have a typical horrible game. This is almost a perfect storm.

Alabama 38

Tennessee 17

Doug says:

The third Saturday in October used to be a meaningful, magical weekend specifically because of this matchup. Maybe the excitement will return some day, but the luster has faded somewhat. I am about 100% sure that Crompton is going to have a nightmarish game. It's the perfect recipe: bland, underwhelming QB against raging beast of a defense. UT is getting better, but this one, I think, will be ugly.

Alabama at home: +10 Alabama

With their defense playing well: +5 Alabama

And facing Jonathan Crompton: +5 Alabama

Eric Berry bonus: +5 UT

Saban vs. Kiffin/Kiffen/Orgeron: +10 Alabama

Red Elephants 28

Orange Crushed 3

Vanderbilt at South Carolina

Dave says:

After reaching a bowl game and winning it in 2008, Vanderbilt has assumed the fetal position. They look like the Vandy of old, and that's not good news. Jesus, they lost to Army! Consider that South Carolina is playing very good football as of late, and they are one win away from bowl eligibility. They will get it this weekend. All-world Eric Norwood will feast upon the hideous Commode Doors.

AKC 34

Vandy 10

Doug says:

The Ol' Ball Coach will tie Vince Dooley for third in all-time SEC wins with a victory in this one. And he shouldn't have a problem getting it done. Vanderbilt returned tons of players from last year's bowl team, but they've still inexplicably returned to the Vandy we all know and love. Our boy Bubb finds this depressing, which is why he probably keeps blowing off our requests to return as a guest Dave.

Carolina at home: +10 SC

Garcia playing better: +5 SC

Vanderbilt offensive futility: +10 USC

Overall athletic talent comparison: +10 USC

Overall academic talent comparison: +15 Vandy

Cackolackey 30

Easy Like Sunday Morning 10

Louisiana-Monroe at Kentucky

Dave says:

My guess is this is homecoming weekend in Lexington. The Cats should welcome home Rich Brooks and the team after an impressive win on the road at Auburn. That win kept UK's bowl chances alive. They will win this weekend, improving to 4-3 with five games left to play. I think they have a good chance at reaching that magical sixth win. But for now…

UK 26

ULM 17

Doug says:

Even though you wouldn't know by looking at him, Rich Brooks is happy after his team defeated Auburn last week. He's even happier knowing that he's got a directional Louisiana on the agenda for this week. Kentucky's basketball program has learned that John Calipari's top thug, er, recruit, has eligibility issues, so the majority of the Kentucky fanbase is on suicide watch right now. That should make for a fairly muted crowd for this game. Don't look for it to hurt the Mildcats.

Kentucky at home: +5 KY

For homecoming: +5 KY

Against Directional Louisiana: +10 KY

Talent discrepancy: +5 KY

Apathetic fans: +5 ULM

Mildcats 27

Roadkill 7

Florida at Mississippi State

Dave says:

ESPN is sending its A team to cover this game, and for good reason. Florida is one of the top two teams in the nation, first in the BCS rankings. Former Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen is now the head coach at Mississippi State, and Mullen has made significant improvement in Starkville in his first year. Then again, a goat could do better than Sylvester Croom.

Most of the media is looking at this game from the Meyer-Mullen-Tebow angle. After all, these three were together to win the BCS title game in January. I can tell you right now that this will not mean jack when these teams hit the field. All three of these men are fierce competitors and friendships will mean nothing for 60 minutes.

Others are covering this game from the "Florida hasn't won in Starkville in its last four trips" perspective. That is true, Florida has not won in Starkville since 1986. Spurrier brought highly ranked teams to town and left with ass whippings. Ron Zook was the first coach to be Croomed. Enter Urban Meyer, a coach sporting a 50-9 record as head coach at Florida, an eye-popping .847 winning percentage. The Gators have won two BCS titles in three seasons under Meyer. Florida in a cakewalk, right? Not so fast my fine feathered friends. Florida's offense is missing something this year. Some say Louis Murphy and Percy Harvin. The biggest thing missing from Florida is Dan Mullen. Mullen has transformed a team that would not, could not compete against most of the SEC into one that has been on the verge of major upsets. Just ask LSU.

Mississippi State can win this game. They've got a tremendous running game, lead by Anthony Dixon. Florida and Mississippi State have both turned the football over a great deal in the last few games. That cost Mississippi State three wins, but Florida overcame their turnovers. If Florida executes their passing game very well, they win this game. If Mississippi State does not turn the ball over, they have a chance to win. I expect this to be a very close game, decided late in the fourth quarter. Do not be surprised if Meyer follows Spurrier and Zook in leaving Starkville with a loss.

Florida 28

Mississippi State 27.99999

Doug says:

Every talking head with a microphone has Florida on upset alert here. I get it, Mullen vs. his old team, Florida not playing well, MSU is much improved, blah, blah, blah. I think the spread is way too large (MSU +23 last I saw) and I do believe State can keep it competitive. But they're not going to beat Tebow and the Gators. I mean, it can't happen, right?

MSU at home: +10 MSU

In front of record crowd: +10 MSU

Tebow vs. Lee: +20 Fla

Meyer vs. Mullen: Push

Turnover margin: +10 Fla

Fighting Tebows 24

Midget QB 14

Auburn at LSU

Dave says:

It wasnt too long ago that this game decided which of these teams would play in the SEC Championship game. With both of these teams sitting on five wins, the only thing certain is that one of these teams will become bowl eligible this weekend. LSU still has a chance or reaching Atlanta, and Auburn does not after losing to Kentucky at home. If Kentucky was able to put the clamps on Auburn's offense, then LSU should be able to as well. The question is can LSU's offense perform against Auburn's defense. I can't answer that. Home field advantage wins this.

LSU 28

Auburn 27

Doug says:

Well, the real Auburn has arrived. Is Chizik still a coach of the year candidate? Are the Tigers this year's Vanderbilt (jump out to 5-0 and make a bowl game by the skin of their teeth)? These are all good questions. This is still a winnable game for the Barn, because LSU hasn't impressed many folks to this point. As a wise man once said, this is why they play the game. This matchup conjures up magical memories for me. If you ever see pictures of me and Magee floating around in LSU gear, it's not because we're coonasses, but because we've attended this game before and wore purple to keep from getting our asses whipped.

LSU at home: +10 LSU

At night: +10 LSU

Quarterback comparison: Push

Gary Crowton vs. Gus Malzahn: +20 Auburn

Les Miles vs. Gene Chizik: +1 LSU

Coonasses 31

War Tigers 30